Victoria, BC, Canada

In the latest look at video game trends on eBay USA, we at AERS have been using Advanced technology to get our expansive database to tell us a story. This time, the focus is on eBay USA top five video games sold by volume and revenue for the month of June 2009. Here are the results:

As recently reported on this blog, HP had impressive results on the eBay USA platform during Q3 2008. What has happened since then? Last month, HP posted a 13% loss in profit for its fourth quarter and Dell reported a 48% decline in profit for the same period.

Despite the downturn in offline sales for both HP and Dell, HP’s online sales have seen a different trend. In Q4 08, there was an 89% increase in new HP laptop sales on the eBay USA platform over Q4 2007, a rise from $5.29 million USD to $10.01 million USD. Once again, HP surpasses Dell in this category for sales of this new products. Dell product sales on eBay for this category dropped 10% from $18.14 million to $7.32 million USD during this same period.

The popularity of new HP laptops is continuing into the first quarter of 2009. Our data, updated daily, shows that HP’s sales exceed that of Dell by 78.4% from January 01 to March 10 2009; and that HP has already surpassed its own Q1 2008 eBay revenues by 8%.

Will HP’s success on eBay be mirrored in offline retail? The answer will become clear when the first quarter reports are released.

As the US savings rate increases to an all time high since 1997, it seems that eBay is increasingly becoming a safe haven for various products including Dell technology.

For the fourth quarter, Dell has reported a profit of $351 million USD. This is a 48% decrease from their Q3 2008 profit of $727 million USD. Despite this offline decline in demand for Dell products and services, there has been a bright spot in eBay where it’s traded laptops and desktops have had a combined increase in net revenue and volume.

When compared to the third quarter of 2008, Dell experienced a 6% increase in revenue and a 13% increase in volume traded in eBay USA for combined laptops and desktops alone. Dell’s eBay revenue rose 9.4% of the total global net revenue for this quarter.

It would also appear that in 2008 eBay users have indicated an increasing preference for refurbished Dell items over new and used ones. In a Q4 08/07 comparison there is a 1.82% reduction in revenue and an 18% increase in volume on eBay for Dell laptops and computers. For refurbished Dell laptops and desktops, the volume rose dramatically by 36% and the revenue increased 18% to $14.1 million USD from $11.9 million USD.

Sometimes described as a venue for early technology adopters, it will be interesting to see how many more chose alternative venues such as eBay as the American consumption rate slows.

How is this going to affect future demand and will there be supply shortages? Or does today’s price represent gold entering into a zone of resistances that precedes the decline in demand?

It is possible that the eBay gold bullion trading community will be facing a large increase. In the past week, gold bullion trading on the eBay USA platform alone peaked at an all time weekly high of $3.26 million USD in two years. This represents a 95% increase from the same time a year ago.

As the gold trend unfolds, it will be interesting to see how the online gold trading community will respond.

Whether or not demand on eBay USA decreased due to the maintained pre-discount prices is unclear. An isolated look at traded new GPS devices correlates to the observed demand for all traded GPS devices. As prices held steady, the decline continued until Black Friday had passed.

Gross sales on eBay USA during these mentioned time periods seem to indicate that ecommerce became preferred venue of trade for GPS devices when economic difficulties hit and Garmin discounted its prices. It is possible this will continue to be the case. As a country with the largest car ownership rates in the world, GPS devices have potential in the retail market for a population that is likely to use them for the purpose of planning more fuel efficient routes. Further more, if the US dollar continues increasing in value, it is possible eBay USA will see a decrease in foreign buyers who find the product relatively more expensive than before.

Until then, online demand and real world demand appear to have been decoupled. As virtual demand decreased during this year’s third quarter, Garmin’s total revenue increased from the third quarter of 2007. Although retail sales are a significant part of its profit margins, this growth also came from an increased share in the aviation and auto sectors.

In the eBay USA market, Garmin has consistently outsold other top brands such as TomTom and Magellan by as much as four times and eight times the amount respectively. Garmin is currently at the head of the pack. When the fourth quarter results are released on the 22nd February, we will discover whether it holds onto its position.

Recently, IBM reported 12% profit increase for 2008 although its quarter over quarter revenue has decreased. In the real world, IBM has been able to attract demand in other areas such as contracts and consulting.

In the world’s largest virtual marketplace, new laptop sales for both IBM and HP reflect the global increase in demand during the year of 2008. For IBM/Lenovo, the 2007/2008 year over year rise in revenue on eBay for the second quarter is 52.88%. The growth rate slowed down sharply to 5.18% for the third quarter and 1% for the fourth quarter.

In Q4 2008, sales of new laptops on eBay USA increased from Q4 2007 by 40%. The overall gross sales for 2008 exceeded those of 2007 by nearly 30%- going from $3.25 million USD to $4.16 million USD. In contrast, new Dell and Compaq laptops have experienced declining eBay sales since April 2008.

Steadily increasing average sold prices for all HP desktops on eBay USA are demonstrating consumer preferences. Desktops sold for an average of $510 USD per laptop in June 2008. By November 2008, that value had peaked to $760 USD. Although Dell saw a similar climb, it was nowhere near as drastic-ranging from $440 USD in April 2008 to $580 USD in November 2008.